Abstract. Nudges—ways of influencing consumer behavior by altering the context of choices rather than using direct incentives or limiting options outright—have become increasingly popular policy instruments in the pursuit of goals such as promoting public health, raising savings rates, and addressing climate change. However,nudges often have disappointingly small effects. We propose that “pre”-nudges can be used as nudge amplifiers. Pre-nudges, too, alter choice contexts, but with the aim of enhancing consumer responsiveness to a conventional nudge. We test the concept on a menu-labeling nudge aimed at reducing caloric intake from consumption of restaurant meals. Menu labeling, though widely applied, has been found to have little or no effect on behavior, likely because consumers willfully avoid calorie information. Our theoretical analysis of information avoidance suggests that messages that increase consumers’ sense of self-efficacy and/or their focus on long-term health risks may increase information uptake. Such messages can therefore serve as pre-nudges. We empirically test this prediction using a large-scale laboratory experiment, and find that the messages indeed significantly increase calorie-information uptake, thus amplifying the menu-labeling nudge. This suggests a possible role for pre-nudges in addressing the obesity epidemic—one of the largest public health issues in the U.S. and beyond—while also illustrating the potential usefulness of pre-nudges more generally.

Keywords: pre-nudge, nudge, information avoidance, calorie information

JEL classification: D04, D90, D80, C91

Abstract. We explore the economics of edible insects. We describe in detail how the biology of insects makes them a remarkable source of nutrition that can be produced with less resources and a lesser environmental impact than alternatives (e.g., meat). Thus, edible insects have the potential to play a key role in a more sustainable food system, thereby mitigating climate change and biodiversity loss. Furthermore, we highlight that a tropical climate and an abundance of endemic insect species in much of Latin America gives the region a competitive advantage in developing the industry to integrate edible insects into the food system.

Keywords: food system, agriculture, biodiversity loss, climate change, sustainability

JEL classification: Q01, Q16, Q56

Abstract. This is a cross-country exploratory study of the availability of piped drinking-water in rural Central America—where community water organizations (CWOs) are often the sole providers of piped drinking-water. We rely on two related surveys conducted in three countries in Central America—Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Guatemala—at the household- and CWO-level. Thus, we can describe households’ perceptions and actions within the context provided by the CWOs. At the household level, we document large differences in the reliability of the water service across countries, which lead to differences in the extent and ways in which households cope. Furthermore, these differences are mirrored at the community level, in which CWOs acrosscountries exhibit a rather distinct level of formalization and financial resources. Our study sites lie within a particularly dry region in Central America, serving as a cautionary tale for other regions as climate change intensifies

Keywords: rural water service, community water organizations, Central America, coping costs, climate change, adaptation

JEL classification: O13, O20, Q25

Abstract. We introduce the endowment effect for information: A tendency to value information more when expecting it, independently of its content. This result follows from a standard belief-based model of reference-dependent preferences and it is driven by gain-loss utility, though the information’s instrumentality can modulate the effect. Results from a laboratory experiment align with the theoretical results. Thus, we contribute to further understanding information avoidance beyond content or timing effects. Additionally, we discuss three experimental observations from a sequential manipulation of beliefs in our experimental design, laying groundwork for a theory of referent formation.

Keywords: Preferences for information, reference-dependent preferences, information avoidance, credence attributes

JEL codes: D01, D80, D83, D84, D91, C91.

Abstract. Coming soon.

Abstract. Replication is an important “credibility control” mechanism for clarifying the reliability of published findings. However, replication is costly, and it is infeasible to replicate everything. Accurate, fast, lower cost alternatives such as eliciting predictions from experts or novices could accelerate credibility assessment and improve allocation of replication resources for important and uncertain findings. We elicited judgments from experts and novices on 100 claims from preprints about an emerging area of research (COVID-19 pandemic) using a new interactive structured elicitation protocol and we conducted 35 new replications. Participants’ average estimates were similar to the observed replication rate of 60%. After interacting with their peers, novices updated both their estimates and confidence in their judgements significantly more than experts and their accuracy improved more between elicitation rounds. Experts’ average accuracy was 0.54 (95% CI: [0.454, 0.628]) after interaction and they correctly classified 55% of claims; novices’ average accuracy was 0.55 (95% CI: [0.455, 0.628]), correctly classifying 61% of claims. The difference in accuracy between experts and novices was not significant and their judgments on the full set of claims were strongly correlated (r=.48). These results are consistent with prior investigations eliciting predictions about the replicability of published findings in established areas of research and suggest that expertise may not be required for credibility assessment of some research findings.