Abstract. This is a cross-country exploratory study of the availability of piped drinking-water in rural Central America—where community water organizations (CWOs) are often the sole providers of piped drinking-water. We rely on two related surveys conducted in three countries in Central America—Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Guatemala—at the household- and CWO-level. Thus, we can describe households’ perceptions and actions within the context provided by the CWOs. At the household level, we document large differences in the reliability of the water service across countries, which lead to differences in the extent and ways in which households cope. Furthermore, these differences are mirrored at the community level, in which CWOs across countries exhibit a rather distinct level of formalization and financial resources. Our study sites lie within a particularly dry region in Central America, serving as a cautionary tale for other regions as climate change intensifies.

Keywords: rural water service, community water organizations, Central America, coping costs, climate change, adaptation

JEL classification: O13, O20, Q25

Abstract. Coming soon.

Abstract. Replication is an important “credibility control” mechanism for clarifying the reliability of published findings. However, replication is costly, and it is infeasible to replicate everything. Accurate, fast, lower cost alternatives such as eliciting predictions from experts or novices could accelerate credibility assessment and improve allocation of replication resources for important and uncertain findings. We elicited judgments from experts and novices on 100 claims from preprints about an emerging area of research (COVID-19 pandemic) using a new interactive structured elicitation protocol and we conducted 35 new replications. Participants’ average estimates were similar to the observed replication rate of 60%. After interacting with their peers, novices updated both their estimates and confidence in their judgements significantly more than experts and their accuracy improved more between elicitation rounds. Experts’ average accuracy was 0.54 (95% CI: [0.454, 0.628]) after interaction and they correctly classified 55% of claims; novices’ average accuracy was 0.55 (95% CI: [0.455, 0.628]), correctly classifying 61% of claims. The difference in accuracy between experts and novices was not significant and their judgments on the full set of claims were strongly correlated (r=.48). These results are consistent with prior investigations eliciting predictions about the replicability of published findings in established areas of research and suggest that expertise may not be required for credibility assessment of some research findings.

Keywords: COVID-19, delphi, expertise, forecasting, prediction markets, replication

Abstract. We tested whether large language models (LLMs) can help predict results from a complex behavioural science experiment. In study 1, we investigated the performance of the widely used LLMs GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 in forecasting the empirical findings of a large-scale experimental study of emotions, gender, and social perceptions. We found that GPT-4, but not GPT-3.5, matched the performance of a cohort of 119 human experts, with correlations of 0.89 (GPT-4), 0.07 (GPT-3.5) and 0.87 (human experts) between aggregated forecasts and realized effect sizes. In study 2, providing participants from a university subject pool the opportunity to query a GPT-4 powered chatbot significantly increased the accuracy of their forecasts. Results indicate promise for artificial intelligence (AI) to help anticipate—at scale and minimal cost—which claims about human behaviour will find empirical support and which ones will not. Our discussion focuses on avenues for human–AI collaboration in science.

Keywords: forecasting, large language models, meta-research

Abstract. A preregistered meta-analysis, including 244 effect sizes from 85 field audits and 361,645 individual job applications, tested for gender bias in hiring practices in female-stereotypical and gender-balanced as well as male-stereotypical jobs from 1976 to 2020. A “red team” of independent experts was recruited to increase the rigor and robustness of our meta-analytic approach. A forecasting survey further examined whether laypeople (n = 499 nationally representative adults) and scientists (n = 312) could predict the results. Forecasters correctly anticipated reductions in discrimination against female candidates over time. However, both scientists and laypeople overestimated the continuation of bias against female candidates. Instead, selection bias in favor of male over female candidates was eliminated and, if anything, slightly reversed in sign starting in 2009 for mixed-gender and male-stereotypical jobs in our sample. Forecasters further failed to anticipate that discrimination against male candidates for stereotypically female jobs would remain stable across the decades.

Keywords: gender, discrimination, field experiments, meta-analysis, open science, forecasting

Abstract. Using a spatially explicit framework with low/middle-income country coastal characteristics, we explore whether aspatial policies augment the impact of marine protected areas (MPAs) and identify when MPAs create income burdens on communities. When MPAs are small and budget-constrained, they cannot resolve all of the marinescape’s open-access issues, but they can create win-win opportunities for ecological and economic goals at lower levels of enforcement. Aspatial policies—taxes, gear restrictions, license restrictions, and livelihood programs—improve the MPA’s ability to generate ecological gains, and licenses and livelihood policies can mitigate MPA-induced income burdens. Managers can use MPA location and enforcement level, in conjunction with the MPA’s impact on fish dispersal, to induce exit from fishing and to direct the spatial leakage of effort. Our framework provides further insights for conservation-development policy in coastal settings, and we explore stylized examples in Costa Rica and Tanzania.

Keywords: artisanal fishery, fishery management, leakage, marine protected areas, marine reserves, no-take zones, people–park conflict, spatial bioeconomic models, spatial prioritization

JEL classification: O13, Q22, Q56, Q57

Abstract. To ensure food security among rural communities under a changing climate, policymakers need information on the prevalence and determinants of food insecurity, the role of extreme weather events in exacerbating food insecurity, and the strategies that farmers use to cope with food insecurity. Using household surveys in Guatemala and Honduras, we explore the prevalence of food insecurity among smallholder farmers on both a recurrent (seasonal) and episodic (resulting from extreme weather events) basis, analyze the factors associated with both types of food insecurity, and document farmer coping strategies. Of the 439 households surveyed, 56% experienced recurrent food insecurity, 36% experienced episodic food insecurity due to extreme weather events, and 24% experienced both types. Food insecurity among smallholder farmers was correlated with sociodemographic factors (e.g., age, education, migration) and asset ownership. The factors affecting food insecurity differed between type and prevalence of food insecurity. Our results highlight the urgent need for policies and programs to help smallholder farmers improve their overall food security and resilience to extreme weather shocks. Such policies should focus on enhancing farmer education levels, securing land tenure, empowering women, promoting generational knowledge exchange, and providing emergency food support in the lean season or following extreme weather events.

Keywords: coping strategies, extreme weather events, food insecurity, Guatemala, Honduras, small-scale farming

Abstract. This paper describes the adaptive responses of rural households and community-based drinking water organizations (CWOs) during seasonal droughts in Costa Rica. It empirically characterizes the adaptive measures used by 3,410 households and 81 CWOs in the driest area of the country. Volumetric pricing is a powerful adaptation option for managing water scarcity during these periods. However, these pricing schemes are not properly set to recover costs for adequate investment in water infrastructure. As a result, many CWOs rely on external financial support to cover these investments. The financial and governance restrictions characterizing most CWOs must be overcome in order to implement most of the adaptation measures identified for preparedness against seasonal drought. On the other hand, some rural households use water sources in addition to the tap water provided by CWOs (e.g. bottled water), as well as water-storing devices (e.g. buckets). The lack of effective adaptation of CWOs to water scarcity, expressed by unreliable piped-water systems, would probably lead to a higher use of these alternatives. This would entail higher costs to households, due to the time and resources invested in these activities. These costs and the potential additional costs on health represent the social costs of community failures to adapt to drier scenarios in existing piped-water systems.

Keywords: institutions, adaptation, climate change, governance, volumetric pricing

Abstract. Costa Rica is considering expanding their marine protected areas (MPAs) to conserve marine resources. Due to the importance of households’ responses to an MPA in defining the MPA’s ecological and economic outcomes, this paper uses an economic decision framework to interpret data from near-MPA household surveys to inform this policy discussion. The model and data suggest that the impact of expanding MPAs relies on levels of enforcement and on-shore wages. If larger near-shore MPAs can produce high wages through increased tourism, MPA expansions could provide ecological benefits with low burdens to communities. Due to distance costs and gear investments, however, MPAs farther off-shore may place high burdens on off-shore fishers.

Keywords: enforcement, marine reserves, no-take zones, perceptions, tourism